Recession talk ...
In the current political climate — where positions are sometimes taken based merely on who is proposing this or that policy — any hint of an economic recession may become a big story. One economic indicator this week has suggested that a recession is around the corner.
In a market economy, recessions usually pass within a short period as the market corrects itself. For the past few years, the economy has been growing, and in some cases, impressively. For example, quarterly economic growth has topped 3 percent four times in the past three plus years.
The last time the economy experienced a recession of note was more than 10 years ago. That was a significant contraction, and we hope if a recession comes that it represents only a brief pause in the positive economic times.
But predictions at this point are difficult to trust, and not just because of the inherent politics that will come with such talk. The history of economic prediction has shown that charting the future is difficult. During Bill Clinton’s presidency, the federal government enjoyed budget surpluses, and it appeared this would continue for some time.
It didn’t, of course, but the point is that for now the talk of a recession is just that. We’ll see how things play out in the coming months.