Sat Nov 07 2009
COLUMBUS (AP) -- The worsening state budget crisis will test the political mettle of Gov. Ted Strickland, who promoted a handful of governing principles before he knew just how difficult the budget environment would become.
Among them: No tax increases, no expansion of gambling and a new school funding plan.
They are practical as individual goals, more difficult if done together, and extremely challenging when the state is facing a projected $7 billion deficit over the next two-year budget cycle.
"Those three things are on a collision course," state Rep. Jay Hottinger, a Newark Republican, said recently. "Something's gotta give."
Holding the line on tax raises eliminates one of the few ways to increase revenue, putting more pressure on secondary options, such as expanded gambling.
Eliminating revenue options makes it more difficult to maintain current education spending levels, much less the increase in state spending that would likely be needed to make Ohio's school funding system constitutional.
Each of these governing principles has behind it a powerful constituency that could become a political liability for the Democratic governor should he pick something on which to compromise on, or change positions.
In a statement, a Strickland spokesman did not say whether the governor was contemplating adjusting any of these governing principles.
"The governor will approach the budget for the next biennium with the same fiscal responsibility he has demonstrated over the past year as Ohio has faced difficult economic situations and budget challenges," spokesman Amanda Wurst said. "The governor will continue to advocate for aid from the federal government to avoid worst-case scenario cuts in the next biennium."
Republicans would likely go after Strickland with a vengeance if he proposes tax increases, something he has said would be detrimental to Ohio's eventual economic recovery. Democrats, responding to popular sentiment, have increasingly moved toward Republicans on the issue of taxes.
Strickland said early on that the success of his tenure as governor would be judged on whether he could solve the state's school funding system, which the Ohio Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled to be unconstitutional because of its over reliance on local property taxes that create a disparity in opportunity based on where students live.
Abandoning the pursuit of a new funding system would surely lead opponents to try to juxtapose Strickland's words with his lack of action.
But Ohio's budget troubles weren't a factor when Strickland campaigned for governor in 2006 using school funding as a major platform.
"Seems to me it's something you do when the time is good and you've got revenue in the coffers, not when you are projecting revenue shortfalls," said Grant Neeley, a political science professor at the University of Dayton.
And with gambling, voters have repeatedly rejected proposals to create casinos or establish outlets for slot machines, most recently in November by rejecting a proposed casino in Clinton County.
Strickland already caught heat from some who believed his push for the expansion of the Ohio Lottery to include bingo-like Keno game was a backtrack on one of his governing principles.
Strickland has maintained that adding Keno is not an expansion of gambling because it is controlled by the state and highly regulated.
Hottinger believes going back on the gambling proposal is the least politically damaging move he could make in a pinch.
"None of the three scenarios are good but from a political standpoint, I would presume the governor would rather do this (expand gambling) as opposed to raising taxes," Hottinger said.
"He's raised the stakes pretty high on some of his comments on solving the school funding crisis. He's put himself into a corner."
The horse track industry is already approaching leaders about expanding gambling, pitching it as an ideal way to increase revenue.
The industry wants to put slot machines at race tracks around the state and put casinos in the largest cities, creating hundreds of millions of dollars in new revenue.
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